Relationships between plasma insulin-like growth factor-I and insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3 and second breast cancer risk in a prevention trial of fenretinide.

PURPOSE High circulating insulin-like growth factor (IGF) -I and/or low IGF-binding protein (IGFBP) -3 levels are associated with increased breast cancer risk in unaffected premenopausal women. We determined whether IGF-I and IGFBP-3 predict second breast cancer risk, and whether their changes during fenretinide explain observed reductions in second breast cancer in women </=50 years of age. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN Within a Phase III trial, we measured baseline and 1-year levels of IGF-I, IGFBP-3, and their ratio in 302 subjects on fenretinide and 220 controls who provided plasma samples. The prognostic effect of IGF-I and IGFBP-3, and the surrogate effect of IGF-I during fenretinide were assessed by Cox models after 9.4 years. RESULTS Among controls, high IGF-I and low IGFBP-3 were associated with elevated second breast cancer risk [top versus bottom tertile, IGF-I, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.94, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.87-4.31, P = 0.105; and IGFBP-3, HR = 0.40, 95% CI, 0.18-0.93, P = 0.033]. Fenretinide induced reductions of IGF-I, IGFBP-3, and IGF-I:IGFBP-3 of 8% (95% CI, 2-12%; P = 0.004), 3% (95% CI, 1-5%; P = 0.002), and 5% (95% CI, 0-10%; P = 0.050), respectively. Second breast cancer risk was reduced by 39% (HR = 0.61; 95% CI, 0.40-0.94; P = 0.026). The percentage of treatment effect explained by IGF-I and IGF-I:IGFBP-3 reductions were 4.8% (95% CI, 0.8-28.9%) and 3.1% (95% CI, 0.5-20.8%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS Fenretinide induced a moderate reduction of IGF-I, which marginally explains observed cancer risk reductions in women </=50 years of age. In this age group high IGF-I and particularly low IGFBP-3 levels predict second breast cancer risk.